Working Papers
Overkill, Extinction, and the Neolithic Revolution
(Job Market Paper) [PDF]
This research explores the biogeographical and economic origins of the emergence and spread of agriculture. The theory suggests that mammal species with certain biological traits were more vulnerable to hunting, resulting in human-driven extinctions and the loss of hunting resources. This scarcity created economic incentives that encouraged the agricultural transition. To test this hypothesis, I construct a novel measure of resource loss from extinction. Using granular grid-cell panel data and controlling for ancient climate as well as cell and time fixed effects, I show that megaherbivore extinction triggered both the independent rise and the diffusion of farming. The results are robust to an instrumental variable strategy that employs extinction-prone traits as exogenous variation. The effect is especially strong in regions with greater land suitability for agriculture, supporting the economic-incentive mechanism and offering new insights into literature that downplays the role of agricultural productivity in the origins of farming.
The Horse, Battles, and The State
[PDF]
This research explores the military origins of state emergence and evolution, with a particular focus on cavalry—horse-mounted military technology. I provide empirical evidence of a causal impact of cavalry emergence on long-term state formation, leveraging three distinct sources of exogenous variation: (i) proximity to the earliest known metal-bit site, (ii) an index of ancient horse availability, and (iii) the introduction of horses through the Columbian Exchange in the Americas. Beyond establishing this relationship, the research yields several novel findings. First, the effect of cavalry emergence is time-varying. Second, its direct impact is observed until approximately 1500 CE, after which it disappears. Third, its indirect effect remains until today through the persistence of the state developed in the past. Fourth, this influence is heterogeneous, varying with the timing of iron adoption and terrain characteristics. These findings underscore the central role of military technologies in shaping both the historical trajectory and modern geography of state development, highlighting the time-varying effects of deep-rooted factors.
The Horse, Battles, and The State: Military Origins of Autocracy
[PDF]
Biogeographical Origins of Risk Preference
Work in Progress
The Impact of Horses on Native American Nations. Joint with David Cuberes, Rob Gillezeau, and Sadia Mensoor. (A draft is coming soon)
Keeping Pulses on the Soil: Cultivation Practice and the Early Rise of Political Organization. Joint with Christopher Paik. (A draft is coming soon)
American Prosperity: The Role of Upper-Tail Human Capital
Human Admixture: The Short- and Long-Run Impacts on Development